Campaign 2006 and Bringing Instant Runoff Voting to the Tipping Point

Pierce County, Oakland and Minneapolis Vote to Eliminate Primaries and Adopt IRV

 

Summary

 

Instant runoff voting (IRV) is a powerful tool to hold elected officials more accountable, establish more equity in voter turnout in decisive elections and accommodate increased voter choice. These values are particularly pronounced when combined with eliminating low-turnout runoffs or primary elections. The movement for fair voting has arrived at a watershed moment, as victories in this November’s three major campaigns would be a significant boost for IRV toward mainstream acceptance across the country and would increase pressure on the voting equipment industry to adapt machines and software to make it easy for other cities and states to enact IRV. In the wake of a major state legislative advance in North Carolina that will result in a statewide IRV election the next time there is a vacancy in a judicial office, there are campaigns to elect majority winners in spoiler-free November elections with IRV in three jurisdictions: Pierce County, Washington (population 760,000), Oakland, California (population 400,000) and Minneapolis, Minnesota (population 390,000). A sweep of these campaigns along with an advisory measure in Davis (CA) and likely measure in Aspen (CO) would provide a major boost to IRV, with immediate statewide reform consequences in Washington, Vermont and Oregon.

 

November 2006 Campaigns: Three Major Opportunities Highlighted by Pierce County, WA

 

Since adoption of IRV in San Francisco in 2002, IRV has won an average of 72% of the vote in the four cities where it has appeared before voters: Berkeley (CA), Ferndale (MI), Takoma Park (MD) and Burlington (VT). State legislation in support of IRV also has advanced, with the most significant being: 1) North Carolina in July sending a bill to the governor to try IRV in up to 20 counties and cities as a pilot and use it for statewide judicial election vacancies; 2) South Carolina and Arkansas voting to join Louisiana in using IRV ballots for overseas military voters in runoff elections; 3) the Vermont legislature voting to direct the Secretary of State to develop a plan to implement IRV for statewide offices in 2008.

 

Now we have three major campaigns for IRV, each of which would fold a low turnout primary into the general election using IRV.

 

·         Minneapolis, MN
[
www.betterballotcampaign.org]

o       What it is: To take effect in the next city elections in 2009, this measure would eliminate the city’s September nonpartisan primary (one in which the top two candidates in each race currently advance to the general election) and adopt IRV for all major city offices and choice voting for down ballot offices held at-large.

o       Campaign prospects: The campaign’s chances of a win are very good. The measure was placed on the ballot in a vote of 12-1 by the city council. In a very Democratic city, a motion to endorse the IRV measure won 86% support at the city convention of the Democratic party, while the measure has the support of the mayor and all Democratic candidates this year for governor and secretary of state. The local campaign has a detailed campaign plan and good volunteer energy, while a supportive non-profit in the state (FairVote Minnesota) has secured grant money for 501-c-3 educational activities about IRV in the city.
           Given the Republican governor’s history of interest in IRV and widespread support among key Democrats, a big win could trigger significant statewide interest in a state with a history of multi-candidate elections.

 

·         Pierce County, WA
[websites in formation at
www.yesonprop3.net / www.wavoters.org]

o       What it is: To take effect in the next county elections in 2008, this measure would eliminate the county’s September primary system (one recently changed by unpopular federal court rulings that force primary voters to pick one party’s ballot and no longer have the opportunity to vote for candidates of different parties in different races, as had been allowed for 70 years in the former “blanket primary” system) and adopt instant runoff voting for nearly all county offices. Parties would nominate one or more candidates for each office through private means.

 

o       Campaign prospects: Promising, but a significant challenge. The measure was placed on the ballot in a pair of narrow votes of the elected charter commission, the first by 9-8 and the second by 10-8 – a tie or loss in either of those votes would have killed the measure. The county has a close partisan division, with Democrats often winning about 55% in countywide elections and John Kerry defeating George Bush in the county by 50% to 48% in 2004. A large, growing county with about 760,000 people, Pierce County is significantly more blue collar that neighboring King County. There are cities (Tacoma and Puyallup are the largest), but many voters live in semi-rural and rural areas. At least one elected county commissioner of each major party has endorsed the measure, as has the League of Women Voters and the Republican candidate for county auditor. Former Nirvana rock star Krist Novoselic, a Democrat who gets along particularly well with young Republicans and independents, will play a major role in the campaign, both in raising money and speaking – and has a very inclusive, sincere approach to the issue that will be a major help. About four in five voters will cast mail ballots, and we project about 120,000 votes will be needed to win.
          A win would have immediate statewide repercussions. Washington voters do not like their new “pick a party” primary and will be open to change. Meanwhile, Oregon may vote on a similar system that also allows parties to nominate privately, but with one significant difference – without using ranked choice ballots, the field would be reduced to two in a May primary dominated by aging voters. Putting all the choice among candidates in November with IRV is a much stronger reform. A win in Pierce County will establish the potential viability of statewide campaigns in both Washington and Oregon, perhaps as soon as 2008.

 

·         Oakland, CA

      www.oaklandirv.org

 

o       What it is: To take effect in the next city elections in 2008 if the county auditor determines the county is ready to run IRV elections, this measure would eliminate the city’s current June elections and adopt instant runoff voting for all major city offices in November. In Oakland’s current system, most races are won when a candidate gets a majority in the low-turnout June election; in races without majority winners, the top two face off in November.

 

o       Campaign prospects: The campaign’s chances of a win are good, if somewhat uncertain. On July 18 the measure was placed on the ballot in a vote of 6-2 by the city council after a relatively short-term effort to win support. The League of Women Voters has endorsed the measure and been the lead voice in advocating the reform. The city is very Democratic – in a recent survey of the 236 biggest cities in the United States, Oakland ranked as the 5th most pro-Kerry city in the 2004 presidential race, just behind Berkeley where IRV won 72% of the vote in 2004. A campaign based on the general value of IRV, but also takes advantage of the success of IRV in San Francisco and the many voters who will recall the Nader-Gore-Bush dynamic in 2000, is well-positioned to win big if not facing paid opposition. If there is paid opposition, a well-financed campaign must respond to attacks. 

     A win in Oakland could have significant ramifications for statewide efforts. San Diego already is actively studying IRV, Santa Clara County has passed IRV as an option and several Los Angeles city councilors are interested. A pro-IRV candidate for Secretary of State has a reasonable chance to win. At the same time, well-funded efforts to reform redistricting and set up a “top two” primary system have failed, and advocates of those reform approaches may be ready to look to IRV. More wins for IRV and successful implementations would create conditions where several more cities and counties will move to IRV and a statewide effort in four to six years to eliminate state-funded primaries and adopt IRV would be quite plausible.

 

·         Other notable IRV opportunities in 2006-2007: FairVote’s IRV America program provides logistical and educational support to people in a number of states and cities – support that will soon be enhanced by new multi-media visuals explaining how ranked choice ballots work and the merits of adopting IRV. Here is a short review of other states and cities where significant advances are possible, if not likely.

o       Davis (CA) -- http://www.davischoicevoting.org/  Placed on the November ballot by a 3-2 vote of the city council, this measure would recommend a ranked choice voting method for city elections. If the city keeps at-large elections, that would mean a proportional system. If the city moves to districts, that would mean IRV. Davis is the kind of liberal city that has supported IRV strongly in recent votes, and the campaign should not face paid opposition. A FairVote board member plans to volunteer full-time for the campaign, and the UC-Davis campus should be a good source of volunteers.

o       North Carolina:  In August, the North Carolina governor signed bipartisan legislation (H1024) to use IRV for certain judicial office vacancies, including some statewide offices, and to let 10 cities and 10 counties try IRV in their local elections. FairVote will help reach out to cities and counties about their potential to use IRV; already the election director of one of the state’s largest counties, Mecklenburg, has expressed interest.

o        Vermont:  Vermont has a long history of debating IRV, going back to 1998 in the wake of passage of public financing for gubernatorial elections, which the state constitution establishes must be won with a majority. Backers in the state include the Grange, the League of Women Voters, Common Cause, AFL-CIO, Howard Dean, this year’s Democratic candidates for U.S. House, Secretary of State and governor and the 1998 Republican candidate for governor. The success of voters in using IRV in Burlington’s mayoral elections this year and the ongoing dynamic of split votes between Democrats and the Progressive Party spur debate about how IRV addresses the “spoiler” problem. In 2006, a bill to implement IRV for all eight statewide elections in 2008 had support, but ultimately was amended to require the Secretary of State first to present a plan in early 2007 on the feasibility of 2008 implementation. FairVote will work state backers to build support in the legislature and make sure the Secretary of State has accurate information for her study on the logistics of setting up a statewide IRV election.

 

o       South Carolina and other southern states: The successful transition to using IRV ballots for overseas voters in South Carolina’s primary elections may trigger real interest in exploring IRV along the North Carolina model: pilot projects and use of IRV in some vacancy elections. The Republican chair of the senate elections committee already has expressed general interest in IRV. Other southern states with runoffs also have shown interest in IRV.

o       Maine: Maine’s past two state senate presidents both indicated their support for adopting IRV before running into barriers from state election officials exaggerating the costs of its implementation. This year, a four-candidate race for governor, with three candidates using public funds to challenge the Democratic incumbent, is once again putting IRV front and center before legislators.

 

o       Future city campaigns in 2007-2008: Among cities where there has been significant interest in IRV among elected officials and key civic groups include: Denver (CO), where a November 2006 vote was seriously considered before backers decided to wait until either 2007 or 2008; Aspen (CO), where the city council looks poised to place IRV on the ballot as soon as November 2006; Santa Fe (NM), where a March 2008 charter amendment looks likely, in a state where IRV already has been debated seriously in the legislature; San Diego (CA), where a task force is currently deliberating IRV and should make a final recommendation in the fall; New York (NY), where the current two-round runoff system for citywide primaries can cost the city up to $20 million, yet experience plunging voter turnout; and Gainesville (FL), where a charter commission this year expressed support for IRV and called on the Florida legislature to pass a statute clarifying legality for cities..